The Midterms Changed the Map: What’s Next for HVAC

No matter which party controls Congress or the White House, every home and business still needs heating and cooling. The 2026 midterm elections reshaped the political map, with Democrats flipping several swing states, plus a few that weren’t widely seen as competitive. For the HVAC industry, though, the bigger story may be less about whether key policy fights continue and more about where they happen. Increasingly, that’s in state capitals.

At a Glance

• Control shifted in several states, but neither party gained the 60 Senate votes needed to move federal legislation easily, according to representatives of two major contractor trade groups.
• Industry advocates are focusing on affordability and energy choice: keeping natural gas, heat pumps and heating oil available as options for homeowners.
• State refrigerant rules are emerging as a top concern, with some states pushing toward ultra-low-GWP refrigerants such as R-290 before contractors have fully adjusted to A2L refrigerants.

What the Industry Is Saying

The outlook came from a post-election session at the ACHR NEWS HVAC Contractor Forum in Frisco, Texas. Speakers included Mark Valentini, vice president of legislative affairs for the Plumbing-Heating-Cooling Contractors—National Association (PHCC), and Sean Robertson, vice president of government relations for the Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA).

Valentini struck an optimistic note. He pointed out that the industry has worked through several administrations of both parties and pushed back on policies it considered harmful, and said that work will simply continue.

Both speakers agreed on two things the election didn’t change. The economy was a major driver of how people voted, and neither party has the Senate supermajority needed to pass its agenda without bipartisan support. As Robertson put it, “You still need 60 votes to get things done.”

Affordability and Energy Choice

For Valentini, the debate over energy choice comes back to the same issue that motivated many voters: cost. He argued that giving homeowners a choice of natural gas, heat pumps or heating oil lets each family pick what fits their home and budget. The newest, most efficient system may be a great option for some households and simply too expensive for others.

He said contractors in California are already seeing the effects of squeezed budgets. Equipment sales are down, and so is service and repair work. Some Southern California residents couldn’t afford to fix their air conditioning last summer and got by with window units or fans instead. Valentini said these are exactly the real-world stories policymakers need to hear from contractors as they weigh electrification and efficiency rules.

Robertson added a word of caution. Rolling back efficiency standards in the name of affordability carries its own risk: rules that swing back and forth every time political control changes. He said a growing number of people in the industry see those frequent changes as a bigger problem than how strict the standards are.

Incentives Face an Uphill Climb

ACCA and PHCC still support efficiency incentives, but Robertson said they want those incentives to reward proper system design and installation, not just high-efficiency equipment ratings.

The path forward got harder in Pennsylvania, where Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, a Republican who had introduced a bill on the commercial building tax credit, lost his reelection bid. Robertson said the groups are looking for new Republican champions on tax credits. ACCA and PHCC support restoring the 25C, 25D and 179D tax credits, but he expects tax legislation to be difficult in the next Congress.

Refrigerants: The Next Fight Moves to the States

Robertson said shifting state legislatures will make refrigerants the industry’s biggest concern. Contractors have only just worked through the switch from R-410A to A2L refrigerants. Now groups in several states are pushing policies that could speed up another transition, toward ultra-low-GWP refrigerants such as R-290 in homes.

Valentini said he was disappointed by that development, since the industry fought for the federal AIM Act specifically to create long-term certainty. The worry is that early-moving states like Washington and New York could effectively push the next transition nationwide before manufacturers and contractors have settled into the current one.

Robertson pointed to a Clean Heating Coalition map listing more than a dozen states targeted for lobbying to grow the natural-refrigerant heat pump market:

• Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado and New Mexico
• Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania
• New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts and Maine

Valentini also questioned the argument that the U.S. should follow Europe on ultra-low-GWP refrigerants. European homes rely much more on ductless and multizone systems, he said, so their standards don’t map neatly onto American housing. An audience member added that the growing list of regulations undercuts affordability goals by making systems more expensive, a point Valentini agreed with.

The Lame-Duck Session and Beyond

Before the new Congress is seated, the current one still has about four or five working weeks left this year, according to Valentini, and it needs to pass spending bills. He said an omnibus package or a series of smaller “minibus” bills could give the industry a chance to attach priorities such as tax provisions and permitting reform.

Why State Lawmakers Matter Most

The biggest takeaway from the session: many of the industry’s next policy battles will be decided close to home. Robertson noted that state legislators live in the communities contractors serve, and may even be customers. In chambers with narrow majorities, one or two lawmakers willing to break with their party can decide an issue. He encouraged contractors to introduce themselves.

Both speakers said lobbyists can explain the policy, but contractors who deal with these rules every day are the ones who make the case credible.